Adobe 2Q Profit Slips 2.4%, Company Trims Full-Year Revenue Target

Adobe Systems Inc.'s (ADBE) fiscal second-quarter earnings fell 2.4% as the company is transitioning to subscription services away from packaged software.

Adobe had been forecasting a quick start to 2012 after taking a $94 million charge at the end of last year linked to its shift to online applications and analytical services that make up its Creative Cloud. Now it has posted two quarters of declining earnings and reined in its full-year revenue target to growth of 6% to 7% from a previous range of 6% to 8%.

Management put some of the blame on softness in Europe, where the company generates about 29% of its revenue. Adobe also suffered from rapid adoption of subscription services that require the company to book some of the sale to deferred revenue to recognize in future quarters, not the current quarter.

"While there was some softness in Europe, we do not think that it impacts our competence both in our strategy as well as in our execution," Adobe President and Chief Executive Shantanu Narayen said on the earnings call.

The company ended the quarter with subscriptions running ahead of plan, which shifted about $10 million in revenue from the current quarter to future quarters.

"We overachieved our projection," said Mark Garrett, chief financial officer.

Shares were down 3.9% at $31.60 in late trading after closing up 26 cents at $32.89 on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

Product sales, which still represent the bulk of Adobe's revenue, rose 4.9%, while subscription revenue jumped 45.7%. Service and support revenue rose 12.1%.

"The more successful you are at converting your business to subscriptions, the more it hurts your near-term results," said analyst Pat Walravens of JMP Securities.

Adobe ended the quarter with more than 90,000 paid subscriptions. About 65% of subscribers purchased the entire suite of services, which includes popular tools such as PhotoShop. Subscriptions are available on a monthly or annual basis and the annual cost savings have led 75% of subscribers to choose it over the monthly option.

In addition to its Creative Suite, Adobe is looking to its Digital Marketing Suite for growth. Revenue in that business unit was up 35% to just under $190 million. But at the same time, revenue from two other products in the digital marketing segment--LiveCycle and Connect--trended down 18% to $61 million.

"That business is trending down pretty much as expected," said Mr. Garrett, and contrasted that with the Digital Marketing Suite that "continues to be a growth emphasis for the company." Most of the 500 employees Adobe added in the quarter are focused on sales and support of the Digital Marketing Suite, he said.

Success in selling all its subscription products increased deferred revenue to $592.8 million. About 23% of revenue Adobe posts in a quarter now comes from deferred revenue already on the balance sheet.

For the full fiscal year, Adobe narrowed its adjusted per-share earnings target to $2.40 to $2.46 from its prior view of $2.38 to $2.48.

For the current quarter, the software company forecast adjusted earnings of 56 cents to 61 cents a share on revenue of $1.08 billion to $1.13 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters predicted 61 cents and $1.13 billion, respectively.

Adobe said these targets reflect a weaker demand forecast in Europe.

Adobe is the maker of Photoshop and Illustrator design software for creative professionals and Web marketers. In November, Adobe said it would restructure its business to focus even more on digital media and digital-marketing software, resulting in the elimination of 750 jobs. These restructuring costs and other charges have weighed on Adobe's bottom line in recent quarters.

The latest quarter's results included a $70.7 million provision for income taxes, while the year-ago period's provision was $29.8 million.

For the quarter ended June 1, Adobe reported a profit of $223.9 million, down from $229.4 million in the comparable quarter a year earlier. On a per-share basis, earnings were unchanged at 45 cents. Excluding items such as stock-based compensation, amortization and income-tax adjustments, per-share earnings rose to 60 cents from 55 cents.

Revenue climbed 9.9% to $1.12 billion.

In March, the company projected a per-share profit between 57 cents and 61 cents and revenue between $1.09 billion and $1.14 billion.

Operating margin edged up to 27.1% from 27%.

Product sales, still the bulk of Adobe's revenue, climbed 4.9% while subscription revenue was up 46%. Revenue from services and support jumped 12%.

Through the close Tuesday, the stock has climbed 16% since the start of the year.

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India morning call-Global markets

Stock Markets                                                

 S&P/ASX 200    4,154.0   +26.0  NZSX 50        3,454.29  -26.1
 DJIA          12,837.33  +95.51  Nikkei         8,700.15 +66.28
 NASDAQ         2,929.76  +34.43  FTSE           5,586.31 +95.22
 S&P 500        1,357.98  +13.20  Hang Seng     19,485.54 +67.84
 SPI 200 Fut    4,157.00  +29.00  CRB Index        277.21  +3.59

 Bonds (Yield)                                                 
US 10 YR Bond     1.6146 -0.005 US 30 YR Bond     2.7244 -0.01

 Currencies                                  
 EUR US$          1.2675  1.2680  Yen US$           78.82  78.86

 Commodities                                                   
 Gold (Lon)      1620.14          Silver (Lon)     28.46       
 Gold (NY)       1621.3           Light Crude      83.90      
 ---------------------------------------------------------------
Updates with Tokyo and Hong Kong figures

    EQUITIES
    NEW YORK - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday on hopes that the
Federal Reserve will agree to extend stimulus measures as the
economy struggles to recover and the euro zone debt crisis
worsens.
   The Dow Jones industrial average was up 95.66 points,
or 0.75 percent, at 12,837.48. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index
 was up 13.20 points, or 0.98 percent, at 1,357.98. The
Nasdaq Composite Index was up 34.43 points, or 1.19
percent, at 2,929.76. 
    For a full report, double click on
    - - - -
    LONDON - Britain's leading share index hit a six-week high
on Tuesday on growing hopes for concerted economic stimulus
measures from  central banks, with a fall in UK inflation seen
as increasing the chances of another Bank of England move.
    The FTSE 100 index closed up 95.22 points, or 1.7
percent at 5,586.31, just below the 5,600 level which was
breached briefly late afternoon for the first time since the
start of May.
    For a full report, double click on
    - - - -
    TOKYO -  Japan's Nikkei share average advanced on Wednesday
on growing speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will launch
a new round of stimulus to help combat slower growth and the
impact of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis.
    The Nikkei gained 0.8 percent to 8,722.15, breaking
above 8,714.78, the 23.6 percent retracement of its fall from
March 27 to June 4.
    - - - -
    Hong Kong- Shares are set to open higher on Wednesday,
helped by a 2.1 percent bounce in HSBC Holdings Plc,
but gains for the benchmark index could be limited by its
200-day moving average, which it tested earlier this week.
   The Hang Seng Index was set to open up 0.7 percent at
19,551.9, with its 200-day moving average currently at 19,591.2.
The China Enterprises Index of top locally listed
mainland firms was indicated to start up 0.6 percent.
    - - - -
    FOREIGN EXCHANGE
    SINGAPORE- The euro eased versus the dollar but clung to
much of the previous day's gains on Wednesday, with investors
focusing on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will adopt further
monetary stimulus to support the economy's recovery.
    The euro dipped 0.1 percent to $1.2671, giving back a
bit of ground after climbing about 0.9 percent on Tuesday.
    For a full report, double click on
    - - - -
    TREASURIES
    NEW YORK - U.S. Treasury prices retreated on Tuesday as
stock market gains curbed the bid for safe-haven debt a day
before a Federal Reserve statement that may unveil new measures
to foster economic growth.
     The broad S&P 500 stock market index rose nearly 1
percent on Tuesday while benchmark U.S. 10-year notes
 fell 13/32 in price to yield 1.62 percent, up from
1.57 percent late on Monday.
    For a full report, double click on
    - - - -
    COMMODITIES
    GOLD
    SINGAPORE - Gold ticked higher on Wednesday on speculative
buying driven by hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve may extend its
long-term bond-buying programme to stimulate the economy, a move
which would boost bullion's appeal as a safe haven.
    Spot gold rose $2.99 an ounce to $1,619.59 an ounce
by 0016 GMT. Gold jumped to its highest level in 2012 of around
$1,790 in February after the Fed at the time said it would keep
interest rates near zero until the end of 2014 at the earliest.
    U.S. gold futures for August delivery fell $2.20
an ounce to $1,621.00 an ounce.
    For a full report, double click on
    - - - -
   BASE METALS
   SHANGHAI- London copper slipped on Wednesday in thin trading,
with worries lingering over Spain's debt problems and as some
investors looked to cash in on gains made the previous day.
     Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange
had fallen 0.5 percent to $7,570 a tonne by 0126 GMT, after
rising 1.3 percent on Tuesday.
     The most-active October copper contract on the Shanghai
Futures Exchange climbed 0.7 percent to 55,070 yuan
($8,700) a tonne, catching up with previous gains in London,
after losing 0.5 percent the session before
    For a full report, double click on
    - - - -
   OIL
   SINGAPORE- Brent crude slipped under $96 a barrel on
Wednesday, staying close to 17-month lows hit the previous
session, as worries over Spain's deep borrowing costs lingered
ahead of the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy
meeting.
    Brent oil for August delivery was down 23 cents at
$95.53 per barrel by 0152 GMT. It fell as low as $95.40 earlier,
near Tuesday's trough of $94.44, its cheapest level since Jan.
10, 2011.

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Fed Seen Extending Operation Twist While Avoiding Bond Buying

The Federal Reserve will probably decide today to expand Operation Twist beyond $400 billion to spur growth and buy protection against a deeper crisis in Europe, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

Fifty-eight percent of respondents in a June 18 poll said the Fed will prolong the program, which seeks to lower borrowing costs by extending the average maturity of the securities in the central bank’s portfolio. The current program ends this month. Policy makers led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may conclude that growth is too feeble to reduce unemployment much further after payroll growth came close to stalling in May. At the same time, with inflation close to their 2 percent goal and the Greek election reducing the risk of a euro breakup, they may decide an additional round of quantitative easing isn’t needed for now, economists said.

“Extending Operation Twist is the path of least resistance,” said Josh Feinman, the New York-based global chief economist for DB Advisors, the Deutsche Bank AG asset management unit that oversees $232.1 billion. “It would be an extension of something we have in place, so it would be more seamless, and it doesn’t complicate exit strategies as much because it’s not expanding the balance sheet,” said Feinman, a former senior economist for the Fed Board in Washington.

The Federal Open Market Committee, which ends its two-day meeting today, will repeat in a statement that subdued inflation and economic slack will probably warrant “exceptionally low” interest rates through at least late 2014, according to 89 percent of the economists surveyed. The statement is set for release at around 12:30 p.m. in Washington. Sixty percent said the Fed probably won’t start a third round of large-scale bond purchases, or quantitative easing.
Rate Path

The Fed at 2 p.m. will release policy makers’ forecasts for unemployment, inflation and the expected path of the federal funds rate over the next several years. Bernanke plans to hold a press conference at about 2:15 p.m.

Treasuries returned 3.3 percent from the end of March to June 18, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Treasury Master index, amid concern Europe’s debt crisis was worsening and U.S. growth was slowing. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 4.1 percent, after taking account of reinvested dividends.

Since the Fed announced Operation Twist on Sept. 21, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has fallen to 1.62 yesterday percent from 1.86 percent. It fell to a record low 1.4387 on June 1.
Stock Rally

Stocks rallied yesterday, sending the S&P 500 to the highest level in a month on speculation the Fed will announce steps to boost the economy. The S&P 500 rose 1 percent to 1,357.98 in New York.

So far under the $400 billion maturity-extension program, the Fed has shifted about $383 billion into longer-term bonds. The central bank has about $190 billion of debt with short-term maturities for continuing Operation Twist for another three months, according to calculations by Nomura Securities International Inc.

Should the Fed extend the program beyond this month, it may shift into mortgage-backed securities, in a bid to reduce the average 30-year home-loan rate from the 3.71 percent level of last week, said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Pittsburgh.

“The economy still needs monetary stimulus, though QE3 seems to be a bridge too far,” he said. “Extending Operation Twist signals the Fed is on the job, yet it is not as aggressive as quantitative easing.”
Greek Election

Seventy-one percent of economists surveyed said the election in Greece won’t influence Fed policy, while 22 percent said the vote favoring pro-bailout parties reduced the probability of more accommodation. Sixty four economists responded to the survey.

Monthly employment gains have decelerated from a high this year of 275,000 in January. U.S. payrolls rose 69,000 in May after a 77,000 increase in April, according to data from the Labor Department. The jobless rate climbed to 8.2 percent in May from 8.1 percent the month before.

Target Corp. Chief Executive Officer Gregg Steinhafel said on a conference call last month that the Minneapolis-based retailer remains “cautious” about the U.S. expansion and is planning its business on an assumption that “the current economic recovery will continue to be slow and uneven.”

Retail sales fell 0.2 percent in May, following a similar decline in April, the U.S. Commerce Department said June 13. Sales excluding automobiles slumped by the most in two years.
Consumer Companies

Those results followed a series of disappointing annual profit forecasts from consumer companies. Procter & Gamble Co., Tiffany & Co., Lowe’s Cos. and Tempur-Pedic International Inc. cut their projections, while predictions from Lululemon Athletica Inc., Limited Brands Inc., Macy’s Inc. and Clorox Co. (CLX) trailed analysts’ estimates.

“There is too much uncertainty not to extend Operation Twist,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist in Chicago at Mesirow Financial Inc., which oversees about $61.7 billion in assets. “They need to signal their willingness to ease fairly strongly.”

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who votes on policy this year, described the economy in a June 6 speech as “underwhelming” and the job reports as “disappointing.” The option of prolonging Operation Twist is “on the table” he said.

The FOMC in it is post-meeting statement could voice more willingness to buy bonds if necessary, saying that it “stands ready” to adjust its balance sheet rather than that it “is prepared,” said Michael Hanson, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York.
Benchmark Rate

The Fed reduced its benchmark interest rate almost to zero in December 2008 and later bought $2.3 trillion in securities in a bid to push longer-term borrowing costs lower. In January, it said it would keep rates near zero at least through late 2014, extending an earlier pledge of mid-2013.

The Fed started Operation Twist in September. Unlike with quantitative easing, the program doesn’t increase its balance sheet. Instead, the Fed sells short-term debt and uses the proceeds to buy longer-term bonds. By keeping its assets stable, the Fed can more easily “exit” from record accommodation when the time comes.

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