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Friday, July 13, 2012

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Tuesday, July 10, 2012

US small business optimism falls sharply in June


Small U.S. businesses' confidence in the economy's future declined in June by the most in two years, increasing the threat that an economic slowdown could stretch into the second half of the year.

The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3 points last month to 91.4.

Eight of the index's 10 components fell, with businesses downbeat on sales, profits and hiring.

American companies slammed the brakes on hiring in the second quarter, a warning sign the recovery from the 2007-2009 recession is faltering.

Many economists think companies are holding back due to fears of Europe's debt crisis as well as U.S. government plans for severe belt tightening in 2013. The NFIB data signals confidence in the recovery continues to erode.

"It appears that the labor market softness is expected to persist for some time still," said Michael Dolega, an economist at TD Economics in Toronto.

A separate report from the Labor Department offered more hopeful signs for the economy.

Job openings in May increased 195,000, the most in five months, suggesting business is brisk enough to demand more labor, even if companies are hesitant to pull the trigger and fill openings.

A spate of weak data for everything from hiring and manufacturing to retail sales has pointed to sluggish second-quarter economic growth.

Most economists still expect growth will pick up again in the second half of the year, despite the possibilities that Europe's debt crisis could worsen or that the U.S. government might go forward with a massive belt-tightening plan.

The NFIB survey for June suggests small businesses smell trouble ahead. The drop in the index was the largest one-month fall since June 2010.

"If not a recession reading, it is surely an indication of slow growth," NFIB economist William Dunkelberg said.

Chevy to offer refunds on 2012-13 cars


Don't like your new Chevy? Take it back for a refund.

In a move that makes car buying akin to shopping for shoes at Nordstrom, Chevrolet's "Love it or return it" offer will allow buyers to return cars for a full refund as long as the vehicles have fewer than 4,000 miles on the car.
Buyers who choose to return a vehicle will get their money back, including what they paid in sales tax on the vehicle. They will still incur some expenses such as any other taxes, licensing and registration fees and extras such as extended warranties.

Drivers won't be charged for the miles the put on the car but they will have to wait at least 30 days before they can return it.

"If you don't drive the car that long you are not really giving it a fair chance," said Afaf Farah, a Chevrolet spokeswoman.

The offer is part of a new marketing program that also includes no-haggle pricing. It's targeted at clearing out Chevrolet's remaining inventory of 2012 vehicles as it transitions to the new model year. General Motors Co., which owns the brand, also hopes the promotion will help it reverse a market-share drop by Chevrolet this year.

The return program is good on new 2012 or 2013 model-year vehicles. The promotion runs through Sept. 4. It's not the first time Chevrolet has made this kind of offer.

The brand offered a buyback program for an 11-week period in late 2009 as it sought to boost sales coming out of its bankruptcy restructuring. Only 400 buyers, or fewer than 1% of the Chevrolet purchasers during that period, returned their vehicles.

Hyundai Motor America offered a refund program when unemployment shot up in 2009 and auto sales slumped. That refund could be obtained within a year of the car's purchase, but it was not open to all consumers.

The deal covered as much as $7,500 in price depreciation on Hyundai-financed or leased vehicles for customers who lost their jobs, lost their driver's licenses because of physical disabilities or had international employment transfers.

Just 300 buyers took advantage of that offer.

But auto consultant Bob Martin of CarLab in Orange said it was an important symbol. It "set them apart as a car company doing something during a time of need for customers," he said. "But just because it worked at one car company doesn't mean it will work at another."

The Chevrolet plan appeared to be rooted in GM's belief that its cars weren't getting the market share they deserved, especially in import-oriented markets such as California, analysts said.

Chris Perry, Chevrolet global vice president of marketing, said the money-back guarantee will nudge people to try one of the cars.

"Research has shown customers respond positively to the confidence companies demonstrate with programs like this and appreciate the peace of mind that comes with knowing they have the option of being able to return their vehicle," Perry said.

The other part of the Chevrolet promotion — discount pricing that does away with the ritual car-buying negotiations — could have a bigger effect on sales.

"Many consumers like no-haggle pricing because it's a giant headache and scares a lot of consumers, since most people only haggle when acquiring two assets — real estate and cars," said Rebecca Lindland, an analyst at IHS Automotive.

It's also an efficient way to sell cars, Lindland said. Sales staff won't be tied up for long periods haggling on a price with one client, leaving them free to move on to the next potential buyer.

Buyers will get the same price General Motors offers to suppliers.

The discount is not as deep as those offered to the manufacturer's employees — a previous promotion extended to all consumers — but it should help bring buyers to showrooms, said Jesse Toprak, an analyst at TrueCar.com, an auto price information company.

"Similar programs have been quite successful in the past and we expect Chevrolet to get a decent boost from this promotion for the next couple of months," Toprak said.

The pricing deal cuts about $600 to $700 off the sticker price of a moderately equipped Cruze subcompact sedan and about $1,000 off a similarly equipped Equinox sport-utility vehicle.

Some buyers of Chevrolet models have received better deals in recent weeks, according to closed transaction data reported by TrueCar.com. Moreover, many of the discounts offered in the new program reduce the price of the car to about its average transaction price prior to the GM sales initiative, according to the data.

Chevrolet has sold 961,662 vehicles in the U.S. through the first half of this year, a 6.3% gain from the same period last year, according to Autodata Corp. During the same period, the overall auto market has grown by more than double that rate, 14.8%.

The brand has lost market share to Toyota, Chrysler, Jeep and Volkswagen nameplates. Through the first half of this year, Chevrolet had 13.2% of U.S. auto sales, down from 14.3% a year earlier.

Job Openings in US Rose in May After April Plunge


Job openings increased in May after plunging the prior month, easing concern the U.S. job market was faltering.

The number of positions waiting to be filled climbed by 195,000 to 3.64 million, partially countering the 294,000 drop seen in April, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Another report showed confidence among small companies slumped in June.

Increasing demand for workers indicates some companies see an opportunity to expand as sales improve. At the same time, the report showed firings also picked up, indicating the European debt crisis and slowing growth in emerging markets like China may be prompting some employers to cut back.

“The labor market still looks pretty tenuous,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. The April report “sent some worrying signals that maybe things were in free fall. You have the May report and you can see businesses were turning a bit more cautious, but they weren’t completely pulling back.”

Stocks fell for a fourth day as pessimism about the earnings season grew. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.8 percent to 1,341.47 at the close in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note decreased to 1.50 percent from 1.51 percent late yesterday.

Elsewhere, manufacturing in the U.K. unexpectedly surged in May by the most in a year, reflecting an additional working day after a public holiday was moved to last month. In China, imports rose less than anticipated in June, pushing the trade surplus to a three-year high and adding pressure on the government to support demand as the global economy slows.

Confidence Wanes
Confidence among U.S. small companies dropped in June to its lowest point since October, driven by concern that sales and the economy will deteriorate, another report today showed.

The National Federation of Independent Business’ optimism index fell to 91.4 from 94.4 in May, the biggest monthly decline in two years. Eight of its 10 components contributed to the slump, the Washington-based group said.

“The immediate future doesn’t look good,” William Dunkelberg, the group’s chief economist, said in an interview. “Nobody really expects business conditions and consumer spending to get any better.”

The increase in job openings in May reported by the Labor Department was broad-based, led by manufacturers and state and local government agencies, according to today’s report. Only employers in the arts and entertainment industry had fewer jobs available.

Hiring Improves
Employment climbed by 148,000 to 4.36 million in May, pushing the hiring rate up to 3.3 percent from 3.2 percent the prior month. Professional and business services, which include temporary-help agencies, and health-care providers saw the biggest increases in staffing.

Catalog Spree, which developed an application for mobile devices that allows users to browse and shop in catalogs, has grown to between double and triple the size Chief Executive Officer Jaoquin Ruiz envisioned when he started the firm in April 2011. The Los Altos, California-based company now employs 16 workers, up from 3 at the start, a number that may keep expanding, Ruiz said.

“We’re going to continue hiring in order to both address our number of users in a more personalized fashion, which requires more minds at work, and our need for more content,” Ruiz said in a June 29 interview. “It is extremely challenging to find the right people.”

More Firings
Total firings, which exclude retirements and those who left their jobs voluntarily, increased to 1.89 million in May, the most since July 2010, from 1.74 million a month before, today’s report showed.

About another 2.12 million people quit their jobs in May, little changed from 2.11 million the prior month. That pushed the total separations rate to 3.3 percent, the highest since June 2010.

“Companies are hiring the minimum number of people needed to do the additional work that needs to be done,” Carl Camden, president and chief executive officer at staffing provider Kelly Services Inc. (KELYA) (KELYA), said last week on Bloomberg’s “Hays Advantage” with Kathleen Hays. “They are not making investments in new products, new ventures, new software beyond what they have to. They are not going to until there is more economic certainty, policy certainty, and the situation in Europe clears up.”

In the 12 months ended in May, the economy created a net 1.8 million jobs, representing 51.1 million hires and about 49.3 million separations, today’s report showed.

More Candidates
Considering the 12.7 million Americans who were unemployed in May, today’s figures indicate there are about 3.5 people vying for every opening, up from about 1.8 when the recession began in December 2007.

The openings report helps illuminate the dynamics behind the monthly employment figures, which were released last week.

Payrolls climbed by 80,000 workers in June, less than forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, after a revised 77,000 gain in May that was larger than initially estimated, the Labor Department said July 6. The jobless rate held at 8.2 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Kowalski in Washington at akowalski13@bloomberg.net

Euro wallows around two-year lows against dollar


The euro wallowed around two-year lows against the dollar on Wednesday as investors fretted about the outcome of a German court hearing on the euro zone's bailout fund, the latest hurdle for policymakers as they try to tackle the region's debt crisis.

Europe's political hurdles and investor skepticism about the region's decision-making process are likely to ensure the single currency will remain under pressure for some time, market players said.

"While the euro could see some short-term corrective moves against the dollar, it is really difficult to think of taking long positions in the coming months, considering Europe's situation," said Masashi Murata, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in Tokyo.

The euro was changing hands at $1.2262, with Monday's EBS two-year low of $1.2225 in sight, a break of which would open the way to a test of support at $1.20.

If that level is breached, the pair could move to test its June 2010 low of $1.1875.

The German Constitutional Court began a hearing into whether the euro zone's bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, and planned changes to the region's budget rules are compatible with German law. Without German backing, the ESM, which was originally meant to start on July 1, then delayed to July 9, cannot come into effect.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said any significant delay in approving the ESM could lead to more market turmoil and undermine confidence in the euro zone.

The latest meeting of euro zone finance ministers this week also failed to provide much reassurance.

While the ministers agreed to grant Spain an extra year through 2014 to reach its deficit reduction targets, they did not come up with a final figure for aid for the country's ailing lenders but said some 30 billion euros would be available by the end of this month.

"Meetings come and meetings go with investors fast-learning that ensuing policy statements appear to contain still-wet ink on the parchment," said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co in New York.

The euro fell to five-week low against the yen on EBS at 97.09 yen, and last traded at 97.27 yen.

Market players said support lay at 97.02 yen, the 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement of its June move from 95.59 yen to 101.63 yen, with bids also cited at that level.

The British pound was trading close to a 3-1/2-year high against the euro of 78.89 pence touched on Tuesday, with the common currency last at 78.98 pence.

The dollar last traded down slightly against the yen at 79.33 yen, as investors awaited the outcome of the Bank of Japan's regular two-day policy meeting beginning this session.

The Bank of Japan is expected to hold off on easing monetary policy despite easing moves last week by the central banks of Europe, Britain and China, convinced that the country's economy is still on track for a moderate recovery.

The Australian dollar also traded near an all-time high against the single currency of A$1.1974 hit on Tuesday, and was last buying A$1.2010. Against the U.S. dollar, the Aussie rose 0.2 percent to $1.0205.

The weaker euro helped support the dollar against a basket of six major rivals, with the dollar index .DXY holding ground at 83.318, down fractionally but still not far off a June 1 peak of 83.542. A break of that level would take it back to mid-2010 highs.

MF Global Part 2? Another Brokerage Missing Over $200M In Client Funds


Looks like MF Global may not be the only firm capable of losing hundreds of millions of dollars in client money.

Regulators are going after a Chicago-based a futures brokerage saying it engaged in fraud, misused client money, violated customer fund segregation law and made false statements about its finances.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit against Peregrine Financial Group for stating that it held $220 million in customer funds when it was actually holding just $5.1 million. The CFTC says the false information was made to the National Futures Association (NFA), a self-regulatory organization responsible for monitoring and auditing the firm for compliance with the minimum financial and related reporting requirements.

A phone call and e-mail to Peregrine was not returned.

One client of Peregrine calls the ordeal “nauseating and infuriating.” In a public letter, Attain Capital, which also had money with MF Global, says it was misled by Peregrine’s senior leadership, let down by regulators and failed by the government.

The lawsuit comes a day after the NFA hit Peregrine Financial Group with its own enforcement action which prohibits the firm from soliciting or accepting any additional customer accounts or customer funds, accepting or placing trades for any customer accounts except for the liquidation of existing customer positions and from distributing, disbursing or transferring any funds, including to existing customers, without the prior approval of NFA–in essence shutting it down.

Much like the MF Global case (where $1.6 billion is still missing) the CEO is at the center of Peregrine’s missing money ordeal. When MFGlobal announced its bankruptcy back in October the heat was on Jon Corzine who ended up resigning and then testifying before Congress members about the missing money.

At Peregrine the CFTC is holding CEO Russell R. Wasendorf responsible naming him as defendant in the suit. “From at least February 2010 through the present, PFG and Wasendorf failed to maintain adequate customer funds in segregated accounts as required by the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC Regulations.  The Complaint further alleges that defendants made false statements in filings required by the Commission regarding funds held in segregation for customers trading on U.S. Exchanges,” the agency said today.

The CFTC says Wasendorf attempted to commit suicide yesterday, July 9, 2012. “In the aftermath of that incident, the staff of the NFA received information that Wasendorf may have falsified certain bank records,” it added.

Attain Capital says in its letter, “There was no misunderstanding. Fraud was committed. PFGBest had submitted false confirmations of account balances.  And segregated funds- ours and that of our clients- was missing…And all of this a mere months after Wasendorf, Jr. promised the world that PFGBest was no MF Global.”